As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its final meeting of 2025 today, Wall Street and global markets are on high alert. The two-day session, which began yesterday, culminates in an anticipated announcement this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. With Bitcoin hovering around $92,700—up modestly from yesterday's open but still nursing losses from its November peak—the crypto world is bracing for ripples that could either propel digital assets to new heights or introduce fresh headwinds.
Economists and traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to deliver a quarter-percentage-point (25 basis points) reduction in the federal funds rate, marking the third consecutive cut this year. This move would bring the benchmark rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, down from the 5.25% to 5.50% peak reached in 2023 amid aggressive inflation-fighting hikes. The decision aligns with the Fed's dual mandate of fostering maximum employment while steering inflation toward its 2% long-term target, as inflation has cooled to around 2.4% in recent readings.
In the immediate aftermath of the announcement—likely within hours—crypto markets are poised for heightened volatility, a hallmark of FOMC days. Historically, Federal Reserve decisions act as a barometer for risk appetite, with rate cuts often injecting liquidity and optimism into speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins have shown a pattern of sharp intraday swings post-FOMC, sometimes rallying 5-10% if the news meets or exceeds dovish expectations.
A straightforward 25bps cut without aggressive hawkish caveats could spark a near-term rally, pushing Bitcoin toward the psychologically significant $100,000 mark that analysts like those at The Street have flagged as a post-decision target. Lower borrowing costs make yield-chasing in high-risk assets more attractive, drawing institutional inflows via spot ETFs, which have already amassed over $50 billion in assets under management this year. Ethereum, buoyed by recent network upgrades, might see similar lifts, potentially climbing toward $4,000.
